As a climatologist and a geographer, I am very interested in how weather and climate varies across geographical space. To that extent, how does the forecastability of weather vary from one location to ...

It's probably the hurricane season's most eagerly awaited piece of information for a brewing storm: the forecast path. Sometimes called the "cone of uncertainty", it's a useful tool for tracking where ...

The 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season has been relatively quiet, especially since we're expecting above-average tropical activity this season. After a period of no tropical activity, the arrival of ...

Weather forecasts have gotten quite good over the years, but their temperatures aren’t always spot on — and the result when they underplay extremes can be lethal. Even a 1-degree difference in a ...

Due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, weather forecasts, even with ever improving numerical weather prediction models, eventually lose all skill. Meteorologists have a strong desire to better ...

Absolute errorThe numerical difference between a forecasted quantity and the actual result is known as absolute error. If you predict that you'll run a mile in eight ...

An early track forecast ignited fears that densely populated Tampa and St. Petersburg could be directly hit. Ultimately, Ian made landfall 100 miles to the south. So were the weekend forecasts wrong?

Soon after the midterm elections, we began our regular process of evaluating how FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts performed. We quickly discovered an error: We were using out-of-date data for one important ...