The risk of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz is real and could disrupt 20% of global oil supply. Click here for more information on Market Outlook.

Oil prices climbed on Tuesday as the Iran-Israel conflict raged with no end in sight, though major oil and gas infrastructure and flows have so far been spared from substantial impact. Brent crude futures gained $2.

Rystad researchers conclude there is a lower probability of the conflict escalating into a full-blown war and causing a huge spike in prices. But a potential blockage of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran remains the most important market-moving event to watch for.