For those who want to roll the dice on deflated public enterprises with proven upside potential, it’s difficult to overlook ...

Oracle's post-earnings selloff reshaped expectations for ORCL stock. Here's how reflexive market behavior defines a clear ...

IONQ stock shows a bullish tilt in its probability curve, revealing where forward returns cluster and why traders may find ...

I've delved into this topic a few times without further elaboration, so I thought I'd spend time today trying (and most likely failing) to make what may be a fairly esoteric point. It is this: Not ...

The Basic Curve The basic probability curve looks like an anthill. Here, the X axis represents potential outcomes from worst to best, going left to right. The Y axis represents the probability of ...

At our dinner with Peter Brandt a few weeks ago, there was a point where Peter pulled out his iPad. He wanted to show us something created by a trader in his small group. (This same trader is known, ...

Our weekly simulation for U.S. Treasury yields and spreads. Read the latest update in the article series here, as of December ...

A popular recession forecasting tool now shows its highest reading since 1981, signaling a high probability of a downturn in the next 12 months. The S&P 500 declined by an average of 31% during the ...

The probability that NBER will someday determine a national recession began in the US between December 2025 and December 2026 ...