One of the awkward problems with discussing the yield curve in this context is that economists tend to use the term sloppily.

But with bank borrowing down 35% from the 2008 peak, that's no longer the case. Kalish isn't alone in his skepticism of the yield curve inversion indicator.

The yield curve is a historically reliable recession indicator, and it just made an important move.

The yield curve, historically one of the most reliable indicators of a recession, is a bit distorted, according to the analysts at Societe Generale.

Founder of Yield-Curve Indicator Says Recession Odds Are Rising Scope of yield-curve inversion ‘unprecedented,’ Harvey says ‘This is perhaps the lull before the storm,’ he says ...

An inverted yield curve has predicted recessions for the past six decades. The curve is inverted right now. What does that tell us? | Subscribe to our newsletter here.