The Media Has A Probability Problem The media’s demand for certainty — and its lack of statistical rigor — is a bad match for our complex world.

Apportionment, or the process of determining the number of seats each state has in the U.S. House of Representatives, happens like clockwork at this point. Ever… ...

Redistricting changed the electoral calculus in several battleground states: Some legislative chambers got more competitive, while other previously contested chambers got sewn up for one party.

We looked at seven different ways of drawing congressional districts for the entire country — from pretty fair to seriously gerrymandered. See how the makeup of the U.S. House changes with each ...

Democrats are favored to gain control of the House of Representatives in this year’s midterm elections, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast model. But — … ...

Sources: American Community Survey, U.S. Election Atlas, ABC News Although they all have highly educated populations, these counties are otherwise reasonably diverse. The list includes major ...

If it were up to me — and I grew up in East Lansing, Michigan, where you could literally hear the roar of the crowd from Spartan Stadium in my backyard on game days — the Big Ten would have ...

In the aftermath of the 2020 election, Republican lawmakers have pushed new voting restrictions in nearly every state. From making it harder to cast ballots ear… ...

Longtime readers of FiveThirtyEight are probably familiar with our pollster ratings: letter grades that we assign to pollsters based on their historical accuracy and transparency. Since 2008, we ...

When the new Congress comes into session in January, there will be more Black Republicans serving together on Capitol Hill than at any point since 1877. The number? Five. 1 For years, Republicans ...

As we watch Michael Jordan vanquish each of his contemporaries in ESPN’s “The Last Dance” — which wraps up with its final two episodes on Sunday — it’s hard n… ...

In the last week, Indiana has played an unusually central role in the presidential primary, with Hoosiers watching as Ted Cruz and John Kasich forged a deal whi… ...